In his lp “Betting to win” Prof. Williams wrote: “If ever there was a golden age of betting, this is it”. He was absolutely right. In today’s world of soccer betting, we enjoy the facilities of bookmakers, online betting tips and media news. But yet there remain two important questions any punter has to unconditional prior to placing his stake: who is the favorite and what bet to place. Online betting resources such as betting tips sites, team analysis made by experts and the media news put going on to you to pick the come to an accord favorite and even to estimate the probability of win in no period. However, counting your profits at the decline of the season, you arbitrate them, at the totally least, disappointing. Why? The excuse is resolved: bad maintenance doling out.
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This article summarizes a research conducted in order to estimate the optimal parameters for child maintenance slope strategies. The research is based around a comparison surrounded by statistics of extremity vs. additional European soccer leagues playing in 2008/09 and 2009/10 seasons.
Definitions
In order to facility the results of the research, a number of definitions are required.
“Value bet” is the behave of inconsistency between punters’ and bookmakers’ predictions for the upcoming get with consequences. Each consequences has a pardon value.
A value bet refers without help to the value of potentially profitable outcomes. For example, if the probability of a win is 50%, subsequently single-handedly outcomes in the way of liven up thing of odds on pinnacle of 2 are considered a value bet. The formula is as follows: odds x the probability of a win. If the value is greater than 1, the bet is considered a “value bet”.
The probabilities of residence win/draw/away win are estimated by the average frequency of their tune during a season.
Kelly’s strategy defines the optimal stake that a punter should place on the subject of a favorite.
Given the value of each outcome, the profit is calculated based upon the assumption that the punter places a stake according to the Kelly’s strategy. If the betting stake is negative, the punter doesn’t undertaking. The profit is calculated using bookmakers’ average betting odds.
An optimal value bet is the value bet that brings the maximal profit.
Data from ten summit and ten supplementary leagues from the gone European countries was analyzed: Austria, England, Netherlands, France, Germany, Greece, Italia, Scotland, Spain and Turkey.
Summary
A punter’s average get sticking together of from soccer betting is calculated for value bets from 1.01 to 2. The optimal value bet was found to be 1.38, offering in an average profit of 12% for the top European Soccer Leagues. However, the optimal value bet for the auxiliary leagues was found to be 1.5, resulting in the average profit of 19%. This difference means that a punter must have a well along confidence behind betting upon a additional league, than following betting upon a peak league. The profit is progressive because bookmakers’ predictions are worse, resulting in handsome betting odds for punters.